How El Niño Forecasts Are Made: Skill, Limits, and Reading Them for Kelp Coasts
ENSO forecasts steer decisions on kelp coasts months ahead. Here's how they're made, how far ahead they're skilled, and what they can't tell you.
Dr. Lena Fischer ·
8 articles
ENSO forecasts steer decisions on kelp coasts months ahead. Here's how they're made, how far ahead they're skilled, and what they can't tell you.
Dr. Lena Fischer ·
How attribution science works for marine heatwaves — fraction of attributable risk, model counterfactuals, and what it means for baselines and reversal risk.
Dr. Lena Fischer ·
Marine heatwaves are spikes riding on a rising baseline of ocean warming. How scientists separate the two signals — and why the difference matters for reefs.
Dr. Lena Fischer ·
Both make headlines as warm water, but El Niño and marine heatwaves are different beasts. How they differ, how they interact, and what each does to kelp.
Dr. Lena Fischer ·
Seasonal ocean forecasts can now flag elevated marine heatwave risk months ahead — sometimes. Here's what skill exists, where it fails, and who uses it.
Dr. Lena Fischer ·
How much carbon does seaweed really lock away? A sober guide to the sequestration claims, the science behind them, and where the evidence actually lands.
Priya Raman ·
From the Blob to the record-breaking 2023–24 ocean, the last decade of marine heatwave records shows extremes growing — and kelp forests in the firing line.
Dr. Lena Fischer ·
Marine heatwaves are ranked Categories I–IV like cyclones — but the scale measures a temperature anomaly, not wind. Here's how the Hobday system works and how to read it.
Dr. Lena Fischer ·